CLIMATE SCIENCE: Beyond Natural Variation

Beyond climate science.

THE UNITED STATES IS MOVING RAPIDLY INTO AN AGE OF CLIMATE-RELATED DECISIONS INVOLVING mitigation and adaptation, following decades of focusing on reducing uncertainties in attribution and prediction. But the nation lacks a deliberate approach to generating the “environmental intelligence” needed to support good decisions. It is critical to create a single, credible, authoritative source of cli...

[Science beyond calculations].

Beyond neutral science.

Biodiversity science is unusual in that an emerging paradigm is not based on a specific process, but rather depends largely on stochastic elements, perceived as neutral forces. Here I suggest that these forces, which have been justified, in part, by the concepts of symmetry and equalizing mechanisms, have application to the understanding of stochastic models but do not constitute forces that op...

Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By ‘mainstream’ we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we wi...

Natural science.